First Sighting

Well, it's been a long while since I have posted, and quite a bit has happened to our beloved Raiders. If you listened to te rumors you are surprsed Kiffin isn't on his way to Arkansas right now. The Raiders were .500 after 4 weeks and .200 after 11. Sitting at 3-8 after finally beating the Chiefs, the Raiders looked liked a different teams against the Broncos, whoopin' 'em up 34-20. But despite Josh McCown's best day as a Raider, and Thomas Howard's second INT of Jay Cutler in as many games, the most exciting part of the weekends festivities, next to getting the second division win in a row, was watching our future begin to unfold.

In front of a packed house, the young man with the gold plated RPG hanging off his right shoulder named JaMarcus finally got his uniform dirty. The very first play was a beautiful hard play action, naked rollout where JR put a pass in a perfect place for either; Jerry Porter to make a great catch, or the ball to go out of bounds with no pick possible. Porter made the sideline catch, one of his more routine of late, the Raders picked up 16 yards on first down, and so began the era of JaMarcus Russell. How long and prosperous an era has yet to be determined, but early returns are good.

I was most impressed by Russell's poise and presence. Both of which would be tested when he and Lamont Jordan mishandled an exchange and russell had to control the ball then scambled to the line of scrimage, and again, when from the shotgun, the snap went ary and Russell just fell on the ball. On both plays Russell did the right thing and the Raiders kept the ball, but I am sure those were the first things he worked on this week. Another nice sign was when Rusell felt pressure up the middle. He smoothly side stepped the oncoming defender, pulled the ball down and picked up a modest 4 yards on the ground. He didn't force a throw and he wasn't overwhelmed by the NFL rush, not that Denver's is the most formidable, but it's still better than anything he facesat LSU.

All in all, things are looking up in Raider nation. Kiffin has the tea playing hard despite the record, and with JaMarcus starting to see the feild, the picture is slowly coming into focus.

The Great Q.B. Mistake!

The big question is always "who is the hands down best player in this years draft"? Mel Kiper & other highly regarded prognosticators place Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson in that position. The combine only furthered that notion when CJ ran the 40 yard dash in 4.35. At 6-5 225 & with that speed & talent, Johnson sure seems scary.

The Raiders are in a tough spot where the best player on the board plays a position that is just not a classic top pick position. Wide receivers, even guys like Marvin Harrison & Steve Smith, touch the ball a maximum 6 or 7 times a game. When your a team that needs offence at just about every area how can you pick a player that will only get the ball that many times.

In last years draft the Raiders past on So Cal Q.B. Matt Lienart. A move that prompted both Steve Sarkisian & Lane Kiffin to ask "why" when Raiders owner Al Davis Interviewed them for his (then) head coaching vacancy. The question seems to be well merited given the Raiders poor Q.B. play (by Andrew Walter & Arron Brooks) last year. If we had drafted him can you imagine the Raiders now with the opportunity to get Calvin Johnson? Of course this supposes they still have a top draft pick but still the thought of Lienart to Johnson draws water to the mouth. This move can be seen only as a mistake. When I add that to the 1991 mistake of taking Todd "POT-HEAD" Marinovich over Brett Farve I'm left with one thought, Not drafting one of the top two Q.B.s (JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn) is a big mistake"!

If Kiffin's The Man? Then Here's My Plan!

Lane Kiffin was born May 9th 1975. He is the son of Monte Kiffin, defensive coordinator of the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers and architect of the famed "Tampa 2" defensive scheme. Lane, however, has made his bones as an offensive coordinator for the University of Southern California Trojans football team. After an interesting interview process for the Oakland Raiders, in search of a young offensive minded head coach, Lane Kiffin was the man Al Davis asked to lead his beloved Raiders.

True, he was second choice in a Field of candidate's that was probably not that strong for a last place team. Those things being said it can be no fools luck that mr. Davis chose a young man who scouted many of the talented players who will lead this years draft when he worked as a recruiting coordinator for the University of Southern California the year after Norm Chow left to become the offensive coordinator of the NFL's Tennessee Titans. During Kiffin’s tenure with USC he was instrumental in the development of several wide receivers and tight ends in the program. During his coaching tenure USC has produced noted talents such as NFL draftees Mike Williams, Keary Colbert, Kareem Kelly, Alex Holmes and Dominique Byrd.All these things and more point to a strong draft for the Raiders this year, that is supposing we don't do what several bloggers out there have suggested and trade down. Despite this faith in Kiffins choices I have decided to list my own draft, as well as probable trades & free agent signings.

First, the Draft, the First Three Rounds:

Round 1. The Oakland Raiders select-JaMarcus Russell, QB, L.S.U. In the end they still need a top young quarterback to build around because Aaron Brooks most certainly isn't the answer and it doesn't look like Andrew Walter is either.

Round 2. The Oakland Raiders select-either Michael Bush, RB, Louisville or Zack Miller, TE, Arizona St.

Round 3. The Oakland Raiders select-HB Blades, OLB, Pitt.

Second, Probable Trades:

Randy Moss has been said to be not taking Kiffins phone calls. If he is not with the program a trade may be in order. Moss's value is, I think, more than most would say. He struggled in Oakland last year & complained that "when things don't go right, I tend to drop passes & not play to my best", still Moss has ++ talent & should, if packaged with a third or second rounder, be able to net a low to mid first round pick. Giving the Raiders a chance to draft Marshawn Lynch, RB, California. If this scenario plays out then they can draft either Zack Miller or HB Blades.

Third, Free Agents:

This is where I would like to address the O-Line. One of the free agents I like is Pittsburgh Steelers, RFA, Max Starks. The fact that Starks is young, talented, and massive in stature—listed at 6’8”, 337 lbs.—just adds to the excitement pile. These are some of the reasons the Steelers will not let him go gently. He is clearly the big money OL. Other options include Dwayne Carswell, UFA, Denver Broncos, Jordan Black, UFA, Kansas City Chiefs & Roman Oben, UFA, San Diego Chargers. Still, I feel the Raiders O-Line has been (& I know this sounds crazy) under-valued. You can check this post, Blame it on the O-Line? Not so Fast, by GCP as to why I feel this way.

Blame it on the O-Line? Not so Fast

Andrew Walter is more to blame for the Oakland Raiders high sack totals than their offensive line. Here are some numbers that back up my outrageous claim. Let's compare him to Matt Leinart. Why Leinart? Well, for one thing both QBs played for coaches who were bad enough to get fired, both QBs started for the first time this year, they played in the same amount of games and were under the same amount of pressure. Also the Raiders passed on Leinart and before they pass on another potential franchise QB they should compare one to the guy they have.

category   G  Cmp  Att  Pct   Yds   Yds/Att  TD  Int  Sck  Rtg
Leinart   12  214  377  56.8  2547   6.8     11  12   21   74.0
Walter    12  147  276  53.3  1677   6.1      3  13   46   55.8

Fairly similar right? Leinart had more attempts and yards and actually got in the endzone. And look at those sacks, must be the line right? Not so fast...

Leinart
category   G  Cmp  Att  Pct   Yds  Yds/Att  TD  Int  Sck   Rtg
Blitz     10  61   112  54.5  819    7.3     4   2     8   82.4
Pressure  12  36    91  39.6  400    4.4     0   3    20   39.6

Walter
category   G  Cmp  Att  Pct   Yds  Yds/Att  TD  Int  Sck   Rtg
Blitz     11  54   107  50.5  698    6.5     1   5    17   55.0
Pressure  12  20    55  36.4  229    4.2     0   0    46   49.7

Very interesting, despite all the complaints about our line, Leinart was under pressure just about the same in the same amount of games, 12. Leinart made 91 pass attemps under pressure,and got sacked 20 times. Walter went down 46 times against 55 pass attempts under pressure. That speaks to an in ability to either pull the trigger or throw it away. Let's look at those numbers closely, Leinart tried 120 passes when the defense blitzed, Walter 124. Just about the same, these numbers would suggest that 101 times the blitz either got pressure to Walter (55 attempts under pressure), or out right sacked him (46 sacks total). Leinart's OL allowed pressure to reach him 111 times, he was able to get 91 passes off while just getting sacked 20 times. This suggests that Arizona's line is as bad or worse than ours as far as letting their QB get pressured, but Leinart doesn't get sacked nearly as much. And dropped passes? Leinart had 16 passes dropped, Walter 15, albeit in less attempts. However Peyton Manning took every snap for Indie this year and suffered 29 dropped passes while Walter, Brooks, and Tui combined to have 26 passes dropped. At the end of the day Walter was not the victim that he has been made out to be. He is a 3rd round draft pick that got a chance on a team with bad coaching and didn't do much with it. The line and the wide outs were not the only problem. Here's another tid bit, Walter has a passer rating of 36.2 in the 4th quarter, and he threw 7 of his picks in that quarter while failing to throw a TD pass. This is pretty damning testimony, if you still think the Raiders should again pass on a potential franchise QB so be it. I provide the links for fact checkers.

The blitz to pressure ratio is some what generalized, some of that pressure came from 4 man rush I am sure, but it's the pressure attempts versus times sacked that tell the story.

Stat sources:
Walter
Leinart
Manning

Stats found at sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Win One For The Kiffer!

The Oakland Raiders have made UCS OC the youngest HC in recent memory and I like it. Yeah, as a Raider fan my expectations are low, for now. Kiffin is coming in with the top pick in the draft as a guy who probably scouted or coached against most of the guys in the draft. Now we know that Al Davis has an iron grip, I think he is going to lighten up and let Kiffin have some space here. This is mainly a hunch but did anyone think that Davis would give him a 5 year deal? The draft was probably one of the most discussed topics in the interviews and the Raiders have to have a quality draft this year, it's moral imperative.

Patience Raider Nation

Al Davis should be patient and wait for Mcaniels to become available. Everyone knows the top candidates are not are going to take the job with us if they can go else where, that most likely goes for assistants as well if we bring in Sarkisian. If we hire Sarkisian, why would an assistant who could possibly work some where else take a job under a guy with one year of NFL QB coaching experience and no HC experience at any level? If we wait for McDaniels, Sarkisian will be available to OC and so will Trestman. If we are going to hire someone who would be too young for any other team, we should wait for the guy who spent the last 6 years of his career on the most successful sports franchise in the country over that same span. If McDaniels says no, Sarkisian is still there because it's the only HC offer he is going to get in the NFL.

Just Get Quality

Okay, I am through my off season catharsis and have come to the conclusion that I don't care who the Raiders draft, just so long as they are quality players and at least one or two of them have an immediate, positive impact on the team. Of course I have my dream scenario, however unlikely.

I tried to stay realistic in my wants, I like JaMarcus Russell with the first pick overall. In the second round I really like LB HB Blades. He's just the kind of guy this team needs, a leader, a hard worker, a student of the game. He's a little under sized and needs to improve against the pass but could be a great addition to an emerging D. Nobody else seems to think the Raiders will get him, the conventional wisdom says we need so much offense that the 33rd pick will go that way as well. But I don't think it would be a mistake to ad a a great LB with great character to our team. Another plus for Blades is his pedigree.

At the end of the day, if the Raiders draft quality we will get better. If we do not draft a QB some where in the draft (Russell or Quinn in the first. Brennan or Smith in the 2nd) I will be very skeptical of our offense depending on who they go out and get via free agency. Walter may still be the future but I am not convinced. He deserves a chance but can we afford to not draft another young QB to compete for the job?

Not That Many Players Away

They Say "what goes up, must come down" but, with the Oakland Raiders Going 15-49 since the 48-21 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII, Raiders fans should start expecting the opposite to start comin' true. The NFL draft is 2 months away & the Raiders have the number one pick. They have had a top 10 pick ever since 2003. I don't mean to bum people out but if, by chance, you are bummed then know this, as Lennon once sang "It Can't Get Much Worse".

FIRST: The promise of this young defence can't be denied. Rob Ryan has created a fresh scheme that utilizes both 4-3 & 3-4, though mostly 4-3. Resigning Terdell Sands for the D-line is a must. Even still, another run-stopper could be required. Linebackers Kirk Morrison & Thomas Howard are strong, promising young talents but an energetic veteran field leader, on the line, would help these two younger players adjust. The secondary is all but set, and if Darnell Bing gets a full season in then he could be the hard hitting, finishing touch. All & all the D does not need to much tweakin', after all they were third over all in that category.

SECOND: Here comes the 50 million dollar question. How to fix an offence that struggled to score one TD a game last year. Some believe trading down is the best option. Some believe we are better off with a veteran QB as opposed to drafting one of these following first round locks, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn or Brian Brohm. However, for me, I would agree with this post I Am Big On J-Russ posted by GCP.

Indeed, whatever the silver & black do in the draft it will depend upon what they do at head coach. Hopefully, he will realize the talent of his team was not on display in what they did this year. Guys like Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan &, mr. benched me but I'm still ready to play, Jerry Porter are sure to play better for a coach they believe in. The single most unappreciated fact about the 2006 season for the Raiders is their Head Coach & Offencive Coordinator. Lets start with Art Shell, he had not coached a game in 8 years, I think that hinders his chances. Then there is Tom Walsh, he hadn't been anywhere near the NFL for years. I also read an article on defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, that states his case pretty well, called Rejecting Ryan could hurt chemistry. While I'm still not sure which coach is best, I still feel a QB is the most needed component to a contending in the NFL for the Oakland Raiders.

We Need to Keep Moss and Porter. Period.

Fist place, they make a lot of money and they're both some what damaged goods. There may be somebody who wants to take a chance on one of them, but what would we get in return? They are both potentially game breaking receivers with size speed and hands but hey are both prima donnas who think the world revolves around them, like I said they're receivers. Marvin Harrison types don't grow on trees. We would probably get something decent for them, but we would not be negotiating from strength.

Secondly, chances are that the Raiders will be starting a young, inexperienced QB in '07. Whether it's Walter, Staub, Quinn, Brohm, or Russell they will be learning a new system from new coaches and they will be charged with leading a 2-14 team back to glory. Should we give said QB an entire receiving corps that is as young and unexperienced as they are? Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Porter and Moss are mentor types, but better to give a young QB 2 veteran WRs who are physical and will battle and out jump DBs for the ball, these things can be assets for a young QB. Of course, if they don't win right away and things don't go Moss or Porters way they could both deter a young QBs maturation process as well.

The bottom line is that the Raiders are not as bad as they're record would indicate. They were bad, but it was horrible blocking schemes; injuries and inconstancy on the offensive line; turnovers at crucial times; and poor QB play that killed the Raiders and made it impossible to establish an offense. Yes, Porter and Moss were a headaches, but they weren't TO. I am sure that if they buy into the new system, they can still be one of the best tandems in the league.

Still Don't Think We Need a Quarterback?

UPDATED

There are 5 games that could have been won with a real field general calling the signals in '06. 5 games that were decided by 7 points or less, and the raiders had the ball with plenty of time to do something about it. In one game the raiders, under the guidance of Andrew Walter, in his first start it must be said, were unable to gain a first down and turned the ball over on downs. In 2 games Walter fumbled our chances away. In one game, twice in successive possessions Walter fumbled the ball, the Broncos took the lead after the first and iced the game on the second. And in 2 games Brooks threw endzone interceptions to lose the games. 3 of these games were against division opponents. You remember our division, the place we haven't won in recent memory.

Brooks has absolutely no excuse, he should have played better. But Walter has plenty and they are legitimate. However I saw nothing this season save arm strength thats says he is our QB of the future. I don't advocate giving up on him, I don think however healthy competition between two young studs with good arms can only help the Raiders.

JaMarcus Russell would bring more than just an arm and competition to the table. Russell brings an LSU record 8 4th quarter come from behind victories to the table. This speaks volumes about the intangibles that it takes to lead those drives. The raiders needed 5 last year, 3 versus the most hated teams in Raider Nation.

There are those who advocate for drafting a potential franchise RB in the first round, in that would be the case I would hope they plan to draft someone like Troy Smith in the second round. Smith is another QB with poise and leadership and there are legit RBs in Peterson and Lynch. Going this way could land us some more later round picks as we would most likely trade down to draft a RB. I would love a great RB but I think our running game is better than people think. Here is my dream scenario...

• Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian. Al Davis knows how to pick young talent and this guy is a QB guru.
• Off. Co.: Mark Trestman or Mike Martz
• Def Co.: Rob Ryan
• Draft
  
  1. JaMarcus Russell QB LSU 6'6'' 260 lbs 40 time: 4.75 (Unofficial)
     As I stated above, I would like to see us with two good young QBs. With a QB guy like Sark, this is a win win situation.
     video 1
     video 2
     condraft.com profile
  2. HB Blades OLB Pitt 5' 11'' 238 lbs 40 time: 4.69 (Unofficial)
     We need to not neglect the fact that we have an emerging defense. I know I might be dreaming of getting this guy and moving him to the week side, but I would love a guy of this caliber on our D.
     video
     condraft.com profile
     Kyle Young 6'5 330 C (I like Young, but over reacting and drafting all offense on day one may be a mistake)
     
  3. Chris Henry RB UA 6' 1'' 233 lbs 40 time: 4.35
     Could be a sleeper, big and fast
     condraft.com profile
     Matt Spaeth 6'7" 265 TE (Spaeth may be available later, his shoulder is a concern)
     

Of course, this is all subject to change!

Game Links:

• Browns Defeat Raiders 24-21 Sunday, October 1st, 2006
• Raiders Lose Heartbreaker to Broncos 17-13 Sunday, November 12, 2006
• Raiders Fall to Chargers 21-14 Sunday, November 26, 2006
• Raiders Fall to Chiefs 17-13 Sunday, November 19, 2006
• Texans Top Raiders 23-14 Sunday, December 3, 2006

I Am Big on J-Russ

The More I read about this guy, the more I think about it, the more I say we need JaMarcus Russell. This guy is being compared to Daune Cullpepper, which isn't that bad of a comparison, you could a lot worse! But what I saw in the Sugar Bowl, and when I read about the 8 come from behind wins in the 4th quarter or later, I say he reminds me of 3 guys.

Part Doug Williams. In his prime Doug Williams was one of the best pure passing quarterbacks in the history of the game. Doug threw a beautiful ball, and J-Russ's ball reminds me of his, not his motion but the beautiful spiral they both throw.

Part Brett Farve. The thing these two down home boys have in common are rocket arm, the confidence that they can make every throw, and a tenacity to make plays on every down. If you need convincing, here is one highlight you should see.

And Part Steve McNair. Okay, McNair has "it" and it's too early to say J-Russ will have "it" in the NFL, but it appears likely. Why he reminds me of McNair is the composure and the humble confidence, Ialso saw him make the same kind of play with he feet that McNair does, not too speedy but tough. There is also the matter of leadership and poise,

Leadership? Russell led his team to a school-record eight fourth-quarter comebacks during his career.

"If they (the pros) watch those (game-winning) drives," said LSU head coach Les Miles, "if they just cut the film and watch those drives, they will make him the first player chosen."

Performance in big games? Russell totally outplayed Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn -- the odds-on favorite as 2007's No. 1 pro pick -- in the Sugar Bowl, throwing for 332 yards and a pair of touchdowns as LSU romped, 41-14.

With his size and calm demeanor, Russell has an aura about him that translates to his teammates. He never seemed to lose his poise in steering the Tigers through an 11-2 season, finishing with a school-record 67 percent completion rate and 28 touchdown passes.

His coaches are high on him, but of course they are. However what's impressive to me is that they continue to bring up the leadership and the fact that he handles a lot at the line of scrimage. Those would be the two areas to try and pump a QBs reputation up, if he was entering the draft, however there is film, and scouts will see it. His coach seems to think that his stock will rise once teams take a close look at him. I think he could be the real deal, as of now I say we take him.

It's a Beautiful Day in the Radier Hood

This is the first post in the Raider Hood. Many more to come. Th!anks