First Sighting

Well, it's been a long while since I have posted, and quite a bit has happened to our beloved Raiders. If you listened to te rumors you are surprsed Kiffin isn't on his way to Arkansas right now. The Raiders were .500 after 4 weeks and .200 after 11. Sitting at 3-8 after finally beating the Chiefs, the Raiders looked liked a different teams against the Broncos, whoopin' 'em up 34-20. But despite Josh McCown's best day as a Raider, and Thomas Howard's second INT of Jay Cutler in as many games, the most exciting part of the weekends festivities, next to getting the second division win in a row, was watching our future begin to unfold.

In front of a packed house, the young man with the gold plated RPG hanging off his right shoulder named JaMarcus finally got his uniform dirty. The very first play was a beautiful hard play action, naked rollout where JR put a pass in a perfect place for either; Jerry Porter to make a great catch, or the ball to go out of bounds with no pick possible. Porter made the sideline catch, one of his more routine of late, the Raders picked up 16 yards on first down, and so began the era of JaMarcus Russell. How long and prosperous an era has yet to be determined, but early returns are good.

I was most impressed by Russell's poise and presence. Both of which would be tested when he and Lamont Jordan mishandled an exchange and russell had to control the ball then scambled to the line of scrimage, and again, when from the shotgun, the snap went ary and Russell just fell on the ball. On both plays Russell did the right thing and the Raiders kept the ball, but I am sure those were the first things he worked on this week. Another nice sign was when Rusell felt pressure up the middle. He smoothly side stepped the oncoming defender, pulled the ball down and picked up a modest 4 yards on the ground. He didn't force a throw and he wasn't overwhelmed by the NFL rush, not that Denver's is the most formidable, but it's still better than anything he facesat LSU.

All in all, things are looking up in Raider nation. Kiffin has the tea playing hard despite the record, and with JaMarcus starting to see the feild, the picture is slowly coming into focus.

The Great Q.B. Mistake!

The big question is always "who is the hands down best player in this years draft"? Mel Kiper & other highly regarded prognosticators place Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson in that position. The combine only furthered that notion when CJ ran the 40 yard dash in 4.35. At 6-5 225 & with that speed & talent, Johnson sure seems scary.

The Raiders are in a tough spot where the best player on the board plays a position that is just not a classic top pick position. Wide receivers, even guys like Marvin Harrison & Steve Smith, touch the ball a maximum 6 or 7 times a game. When your a team that needs offence at just about every area how can you pick a player that will only get the ball that many times.

In last years draft the Raiders past on So Cal Q.B. Matt Lienart. A move that prompted both Steve Sarkisian & Lane Kiffin to ask "why" when Raiders owner Al Davis Interviewed them for his (then) head coaching vacancy. The question seems to be well merited given the Raiders poor Q.B. play (by Andrew Walter & Arron Brooks) last year. If we had drafted him can you imagine the Raiders now with the opportunity to get Calvin Johnson? Of course this supposes they still have a top draft pick but still the thought of Lienart to Johnson draws water to the mouth. This move can be seen only as a mistake. When I add that to the 1991 mistake of taking Todd "POT-HEAD" Marinovich over Brett Farve I'm left with one thought, Not drafting one of the top two Q.B.s (JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn) is a big mistake"!

If Kiffin's The Man? Then Here's My Plan!

Lane Kiffin was born May 9th 1975. He is the son of Monte Kiffin, defensive coordinator of the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers and architect of the famed "Tampa 2" defensive scheme. Lane, however, has made his bones as an offensive coordinator for the University of Southern California Trojans football team. After an interesting interview process for the Oakland Raiders, in search of a young offensive minded head coach, Lane Kiffin was the man Al Davis asked to lead his beloved Raiders.

True, he was second choice in a Field of candidate's that was probably not that strong for a last place team. Those things being said it can be no fools luck that mr. Davis chose a young man who scouted many of the talented players who will lead this years draft when he worked as a recruiting coordinator for the University of Southern California the year after Norm Chow left to become the offensive coordinator of the NFL's Tennessee Titans. During Kiffin’s tenure with USC he was instrumental in the development of several wide receivers and tight ends in the program. During his coaching tenure USC has produced noted talents such as NFL draftees Mike Williams, Keary Colbert, Kareem Kelly, Alex Holmes and Dominique Byrd.All these things and more point to a strong draft for the Raiders this year, that is supposing we don't do what several bloggers out there have suggested and trade down. Despite this faith in Kiffins choices I have decided to list my own draft, as well as probable trades & free agent signings.

First, the Draft, the First Three Rounds:

Round 1. The Oakland Raiders select-JaMarcus Russell, QB, L.S.U. In the end they still need a top young quarterback to build around because Aaron Brooks most certainly isn't the answer and it doesn't look like Andrew Walter is either.

Round 2. The Oakland Raiders select-either Michael Bush, RB, Louisville or Zack Miller, TE, Arizona St.

Round 3. The Oakland Raiders select-HB Blades, OLB, Pitt.

Second, Probable Trades:

Randy Moss has been said to be not taking Kiffins phone calls. If he is not with the program a trade may be in order. Moss's value is, I think, more than most would say. He struggled in Oakland last year & complained that "when things don't go right, I tend to drop passes & not play to my best", still Moss has ++ talent & should, if packaged with a third or second rounder, be able to net a low to mid first round pick. Giving the Raiders a chance to draft Marshawn Lynch, RB, California. If this scenario plays out then they can draft either Zack Miller or HB Blades.

Third, Free Agents:

This is where I would like to address the O-Line. One of the free agents I like is Pittsburgh Steelers, RFA, Max Starks. The fact that Starks is young, talented, and massive in stature—listed at 6’8”, 337 lbs.—just adds to the excitement pile. These are some of the reasons the Steelers will not let him go gently. He is clearly the big money OL. Other options include Dwayne Carswell, UFA, Denver Broncos, Jordan Black, UFA, Kansas City Chiefs & Roman Oben, UFA, San Diego Chargers. Still, I feel the Raiders O-Line has been (& I know this sounds crazy) under-valued. You can check this post, Blame it on the O-Line? Not so Fast, by GCP as to why I feel this way.

Blame it on the O-Line? Not so Fast

Andrew Walter is more to blame for the Oakland Raiders high sack totals than their offensive line. Here are some numbers that back up my outrageous claim. Let's compare him to Matt Leinart. Why Leinart? Well, for one thing both QBs played for coaches who were bad enough to get fired, both QBs started for the first time this year, they played in the same amount of games and were under the same amount of pressure. Also the Raiders passed on Leinart and before they pass on another potential franchise QB they should compare one to the guy they have.

category   G  Cmp  Att  Pct   Yds   Yds/Att  TD  Int  Sck  Rtg
Leinart   12  214  377  56.8  2547   6.8     11  12   21   74.0
Walter    12  147  276  53.3  1677   6.1      3  13   46   55.8

Fairly similar right? Leinart had more attempts and yards and actually got in the endzone. And look at those sacks, must be the line right? Not so fast...

Leinart
category   G  Cmp  Att  Pct   Yds  Yds/Att  TD  Int  Sck   Rtg
Blitz     10  61   112  54.5  819    7.3     4   2     8   82.4
Pressure  12  36    91  39.6  400    4.4     0   3    20   39.6

Walter
category   G  Cmp  Att  Pct   Yds  Yds/Att  TD  Int  Sck   Rtg
Blitz     11  54   107  50.5  698    6.5     1   5    17   55.0
Pressure  12  20    55  36.4  229    4.2     0   0    46   49.7

Very interesting, despite all the complaints about our line, Leinart was under pressure just about the same in the same amount of games, 12. Leinart made 91 pass attemps under pressure,and got sacked 20 times. Walter went down 46 times against 55 pass attempts under pressure. That speaks to an in ability to either pull the trigger or throw it away. Let's look at those numbers closely, Leinart tried 120 passes when the defense blitzed, Walter 124. Just about the same, these numbers would suggest that 101 times the blitz either got pressure to Walter (55 attempts under pressure), or out right sacked him (46 sacks total). Leinart's OL allowed pressure to reach him 111 times, he was able to get 91 passes off while just getting sacked 20 times. This suggests that Arizona's line is as bad or worse than ours as far as letting their QB get pressured, but Leinart doesn't get sacked nearly as much. And dropped passes? Leinart had 16 passes dropped, Walter 15, albeit in less attempts. However Peyton Manning took every snap for Indie this year and suffered 29 dropped passes while Walter, Brooks, and Tui combined to have 26 passes dropped. At the end of the day Walter was not the victim that he has been made out to be. He is a 3rd round draft pick that got a chance on a team with bad coaching and didn't do much with it. The line and the wide outs were not the only problem. Here's another tid bit, Walter has a passer rating of 36.2 in the 4th quarter, and he threw 7 of his picks in that quarter while failing to throw a TD pass. This is pretty damning testimony, if you still think the Raiders should again pass on a potential franchise QB so be it. I provide the links for fact checkers.

The blitz to pressure ratio is some what generalized, some of that pressure came from 4 man rush I am sure, but it's the pressure attempts versus times sacked that tell the story.

Stat sources:
Walter
Leinart
Manning

Stats found at sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Win One For The Kiffer!

The Oakland Raiders have made UCS OC the youngest HC in recent memory and I like it. Yeah, as a Raider fan my expectations are low, for now. Kiffin is coming in with the top pick in the draft as a guy who probably scouted or coached against most of the guys in the draft. Now we know that Al Davis has an iron grip, I think he is going to lighten up and let Kiffin have some space here. This is mainly a hunch but did anyone think that Davis would give him a 5 year deal? The draft was probably one of the most discussed topics in the interviews and the Raiders have to have a quality draft this year, it's moral imperative.

Patience Raider Nation

Al Davis should be patient and wait for Mcaniels to become available. Everyone knows the top candidates are not are going to take the job with us if they can go else where, that most likely goes for assistants as well if we bring in Sarkisian. If we hire Sarkisian, why would an assistant who could possibly work some where else take a job under a guy with one year of NFL QB coaching experience and no HC experience at any level? If we wait for McDaniels, Sarkisian will be available to OC and so will Trestman. If we are going to hire someone who would be too young for any other team, we should wait for the guy who spent the last 6 years of his career on the most successful sports franchise in the country over that same span. If McDaniels says no, Sarkisian is still there because it's the only HC offer he is going to get in the NFL.

Just Get Quality

Okay, I am through my off season catharsis and have come to the conclusion that I don't care who the Raiders draft, just so long as they are quality players and at least one or two of them have an immediate, positive impact on the team. Of course I have my dream scenario, however unlikely.

I tried to stay realistic in my wants, I like JaMarcus Russell with the first pick overall. In the second round I really like LB HB Blades. He's just the kind of guy this team needs, a leader, a hard worker, a student of the game. He's a little under sized and needs to improve against the pass but could be a great addition to an emerging D. Nobody else seems to think the Raiders will get him, the conventional wisdom says we need so much offense that the 33rd pick will go that way as well. But I don't think it would be a mistake to ad a a great LB with great character to our team. Another plus for Blades is his pedigree.

At the end of the day, if the Raiders draft quality we will get better. If we do not draft a QB some where in the draft (Russell or Quinn in the first. Brennan or Smith in the 2nd) I will be very skeptical of our offense depending on who they go out and get via free agency. Walter may still be the future but I am not convinced. He deserves a chance but can we afford to not draft another young QB to compete for the job?